Gai's Tip Sheet
SATURDAY 12TH OCTOBER – ROSEHILLRail Position: RAIL - +2m 1500m-900m; +3m Remainder; +3m 1200m ChuteBEAR ON THE LOOSE (Race 3, 1.45pm, 2000m, N Rawiller, 58kg)Bear On The Loose ran a terrific race first-up and was just outsprinted in the closing stages by a race fit rival over a trip that we knew would be on the sharp side for him. However, it was an incredibly encouraging effort and we had to start him off over that sort of trip in order to get race fitness under his belt. We expect him to relish the rise in distance to 2000 metres second-up, and the slightly steadier tempo over this trip should enable him to get into a more comfortable rhythm in the run. Nash will be positive from barrier 6 to hopefully get him bowling along towards the head of the field where he can set a tempo to suit himself. This race is a lovely steppingstone second-up and whilst he’ll continue to improve with further conditioning, he’s in terrific shape at present so we expect him to be fighting out the finish.IKASARA (Race 5, 2.55pm, 1200m, A Hyeronimus, 56.5kg)Ikasara ran a solid race first-up and he’s come through that start in good shape. He strips fitter and tighter in condition ahead of this second-up display, and we feel he will relish the step up in trip to 1200 metres. The tempo of the race over this distance should enable him to get into a comfortable rhythm in the middle stages of the contest, and whilst barrier 8 is a bit tricky he’s got good early speed so Adam will be positive from here to get him rolling forward into a position where he can hopefully travel comfortably on the speed. He’s rising in grade to Group 2 company, so it's going to be tougher than the races he's contested to date, but he deserves his chance to prove himself at this level and he’s only lightly raced so he’s got plenty of upside at this stage in his career. We'll know more about how he measures up against his peers after this, but we're confident he's got the ability to be extremely competitive so we hope to see him fighting out the finish.PROST (Race 5, 2.55pm, 1200m, T Clark, 56.5kg)Whilst we expected more from Prost first-up at Flemington, the trip away has done wonders for his development and mental maturity and it seems to have made more of a man of him. We can’t fault his trackwork since arriving back at Randwick, and we were pleased with the way that he worked through the line in his latest trial at Warwick Farm against several talented sprinters. He’s rising in grade to Group 2 company here so it’s not going to be easy, but we feel he’s open to plenty of improvement second-up stretching out in trip. He seemed to get a bit lost in the Flemington straight so returning to the more conventional track at Rosehill should suit him well, and Tim will be positive from barrier 2 to hopefully get him bowling along towards the head of the field where he can set a tempo to suit himself. We've taken the blinkers off and this race is a good steppingstone second-up, so if he puts his best foot forward he's more than capable of bouncing back and giving this race a good shake. ANODE (Race 6, 3.35pm, 1400m, T Clark, 55kg).We were disappointed with Anode’s finishing effort in his latest start in the Group 1 Golden Rose, but we know he’s better than that and we feel that you can put a line through his performance. It’s not uncommon for horses to underperform following a huge first-up effort, and perhaps his exertions in that first start this campaign had left more of a mark than we initially thought. He’s come through his most recent outing in good shape though, and we’ve freshened him up nicely ahead of this contest. His trackwork has been very good all preparation and Tim will be positive from barrier 9 to get him rolling along into a prominent position where he can travel comfortably and look to set the fractions to suit himself. This race is much easier than those he's contested thus far this preparation and he's the top rated horse by quite some way, so if he bounces back to his best we are confident that he will be hard to beat. NEW ENDEAVOUR (Race 7, 4.10pm, 1900m, A Hyeronimus, 59kg)New Endeavour ran another very eye-catching race when stepped-up to 1500 metres in his latest outing and he was strong through the line once again. He’s come through that race in terrific shape, and he’s thriving at present. He’s open to further improvement third-up stepping out to a more suitable distance, and Adam will be positive form barrier 9 to get him rolling along into a forward position where he can get into a good rhythm. He’s in fantastic shape and whilst this is a tough race at weight for age level, we’re confident he has plenty more to offer over this trip so we expect him to be very competitive. CONVERGE (Race 8, 4.50pm, 1400m, T Clark, 56.5kg)Converge looks a picture of health ahead of his first start this preparation. We were delighted with the way that he found the line in his latest trial at Canterbury just over two weeks ago, and he held his own against several talented rivals. He has a good base level of fitness to work from ahead of this run, and whilst this race is short of his best he’s not slow so the 1400 metre trip should enable him to get into a comfortable enough rhythm first-up. His wide draw isn’t ideal, so Tim will slot in where he can and most likely have to settle in midfield unless he shows enough early speed to work forward. We know he’s talented on his day but this is very much a starting point for him, so we hope to see him hitting the line strongly to get his preparation off to an encouraging start.SATURDAY 12TH OCTOBER – CAULFIELDRail Position: RAIL - True Entire CircuitCOIN TOSS (Race 5, 2.35pm, 1400m, J Childs, 55kg)Take two for Coin Toss who is in great shape ahead of his first start this preparation. It was frustrating that he was scratched from last week’s intended start after being unruly in the float, however he has had a trip away to Caulfield this week and we have schooled him in the truck around Flemington where he has behaved very well so we are hopeful that it was just a one off occurrence. We were pleased with the way that he found the line in his gallop on Tuesday morning, and he looks very well at present. He was a terrific winner in Listed company in his first start last campaign over 1400 metres, so we know he’s more than capable over this trip and Jordan will be positive from barrier 11 to get him into a prominent position where he can hopefully dictate the tempo of the race to suit himself. He can mix his form, but we know he’s got plenty of ability on his day and if he can enjoy a smooth run in transit we hope to see him hitting the line strongly to get his carnival off to an exciting start.SATURDAY 12TH OCTOBER – KEMBLA GRANGERail Position: RAIL - +9m 1100m-W/Post, +6m RemainderTOP SECRET (Race 1, 1.30pm, 1500m, J Van Overmeire, 59kg)Top Secret ran a very encouraging race on debut and stuck to his task bravely in the straight under a big weight to not be beaten far at the line. He’s come through that start in good shape, and he strips fitter and tighter in condition ahead of this second-up display. He will relish the step up in trip to 1500 metres, and the tempo of the race over this distance should enable him to get into a comfortable rhythm in the middle stages of the contest. Kembla is a lovely expansive track that should suit him down to the ground, and he’s drawn well in barrier 2 so Jean will be positive from here to get him rolling forward into a position where he can hopefully travel comfortably on the speed. He was still quite raw and new on debut, so with natural improvement forthcoming off the back of that effort he should be right there at the finish.
