Gai's Tip Sheet
SATURDAY 2ND NOVEMBER – ROSEHILLRail Position: RAIL - TrueTHE NOVELIST (Race 6, 3.20pm, 1100m, M Bourke, 61.5kg)The Novelist showed up well for a long way first-up. It was a Benchmark 100 race so this represents a drop in grade, and he did give his head a whack in the barriers before then feeling the pinch in the closing stages so he definitely had some genuine excuses. He’s come through that start in good shape though, and we can't fault his subsequent trackwork. He's had a trial to keep his fitness up to the mark between runs, and we were delighted with the way he worked through the line in that. The step up to 1100 metres should play to his strengths second-up, as it will enable him to travel a bit more comfortably and take control of the race as a result. Molly’s valuable two kilo claim brings him down in the weights so he’s set to carry 59.5kg, and whilst this is still a big imposte he’s at the top of the weights for a reason and he's capable of defying it. We expect to see a much-improved display second-up with the benefit of race fitness under his belt, and we hope he'll be hard to run down.BEAR ON THE LOOSE (Race 9, 5.20pm, 2000m, R Bayliss, 53kg)Bear On The Loose ran another solid race in his most recent start at Rosehill and he was strong through the line once again. He’s come through that run in terrific shape, and he is in great order at present so we can't fault him. He continues to work with plenty of enthusiasm and we’ve been able to freshen him up nicely ahead of this outing. This week we popped him over some jumps, which as you can see in the video below he absolutely loved (he's the second horse in the red bridle). Jumping horses is something Adrian and I like to do before a race, as it changes up their routine and gets them thinking outside the box which is so important. He’s stepping up in grade quite markedly here so he's set to face several talented and progressive rivals which is not going to be easy. However, he's open to further improvement third-up with a light weight on his back and we think he’s more than capable of rising to the challenge. Regan will be positive from barrier 14 to try and get across and establish himself in a prominent position towards the head of the pack, and if he is able to enjoy an economical run in transit we expect him to be competitive for a long way.SATURDAY 2ND NOVEMBER – FLEMINGTONRail Position: RAIL - True Entire CircuitDOMINETTA (Race 2, 1pm, 1400m, J McNeil, 56kg)Dominetta ran an excellent race when stepped-up in grade in her most recent start. She battled on extremely gamely down the straight and was unfortunate to be run down into second place in the shadows of the post. She lost nothing in defeat though and she finished ahead of several progressive rivals, proving that she well and truly belongs in Stakes race company. She’s settled into our Flemington stable extremely well since her arrival, and we were delighted with her gallop ahead of this run on Tuesday morning which gave her good experience travelling at speed the Melbourne way. Flemington is a unique track, so we wanted to get her settled into our base early and give her the opportunity to train and gallop on the surface prior to this start to give her that crucial experience. We have been delighted with the way she has adapted, and she will take great benefit from this experience come raceday. Jye knows our horses well and he will be positive from barrier 7 to get her rolling along into a forward position where she can travel comfortably and get into a good rhythm. As you would expect, this is a competitive race with several unexposed horses meeting but she's a talented filly and we are confident that she will be challenging at the finish.TOO DARN LIZZIE (Race 2, 1pm, 1400m, T Clark, 58.5kg)We were all delighted to see Too Darn Lizzie gain her much deserved victory in her latest start at Caulfield. We knew that she was capable of landing a valuable contest and she’s taken plenty of confidence from her terrific win. She’s holding her condition very well, and we are delighted with how she is training at this stage in the campaign. Her work on Tuesday morning was fantastic, and Tim will be positive from barrier 9 to try and repeat the front running tactics that he employed so successfully in her latest start but it's a bigger field and there may be some pressure up front. This race will be tougher because she's carrying a penalty for her Group 2 win last time, so she has top weight of 58.5kg and is conceding weight to all of her rivals, many of whom are unexposed and progressive individuals. This is also her third successive start over 1400 metres so she might be looking for further at this stage of her preparation, but this was the most suitable steppingstone for her en route to the Group 1 Thousand Guineas over a mile in two weeks' time. With all this said, she's still a very talented and exciting filly who's by a sire that's doing great things so early in his stud career, so we are hopeful that she will simply be too strong for them in the run to the line once again. KILLCARE BEACHGIRL (Race 5, 3pm, 2000m, T Clark, 55kg)Killcare Beachgirl ran well for a long way in her latest outing at Caulfield and was just found out in the closing stages. She’s come through that start in good shape though, and we can't fault her subsequent trackwork. She’s shown steady progress all preparation, and we think there's plenty more to come from her over this trip now that she's fourth-up and more seasoned. She’s still only lightly raced and learning her job, so she’s open to further improvement and Tim will be positive form barrier 4 to get her rolling along into her preferred front running position. Ideally she'll be left alone in front so that Tim can get her into a comfortable rhythm and dictate the sectionals to suit himself, and we think the return to this more expansive track where she ran so well two back is another big positive. She’s in excellent shape and whilst this is a tough race, we expect her to give it a good shake and give them all something to catch. LADY OF CAMELOT (Race 6, 3.40pm, 1200m, T Clark, 55kg)Lady Of Camelot ran a terrific race in the Group 1 Everest last time and showed that she’s right up there with the best sprinters in the country. She’s come through that run in terrific shape, and she couldn't look any better leading into this contest. She’s accustomed to travelling for big races having gone south earlier in the year to contest the Group 1 Blue Diamond, so this adds confidence and she’s settled into our base in Flemington extremely well since her arrival earlier in the week. She is yet to race down the Flemington straight which is a unique challenge, but she’s a well-balanced and professional filly who is able to adapt to the conditions. She reverts to racing against her own age-group in this contest which is another big tick, and Tim will be positive from barrier 4 to get her rolling along into a forward position where she can travel comfortably on or near the speed. As you would expect this is an extremely competitive race, but she’s already shown that she’s amongst the best of her generation and we expect her to be fighting out the finish.SUNDAY 3RD NOVEMBER – MORNINGTONRail Position: RAIL - True Entire CircuitCOIN TOSS (Race 8, 4.50pm, 1600m, J McNeil, 59.5kg)Coin Toss ran a much-improved race in his latest start and showed us what we knew he is still capable of. He’s come through that outing in great order and appears to have taken plenty of confidence from it, so whilst he’s racing on a seven-day back-up he’s third-up now and ready for the challenge. He sticks to 1600 metres here as it seems to suit him well, and he’s joint top rated in this contest so it looks an ideal opportunity for him. We know he’s got good gate speed, so we expect him to roll forward from barrier 6 to make his own luck from the front. He’s got a terrific attitude and fierce will to win when he’s at his best, so we expect him to be right there at the finish.
