Gai Waterhouse | Home

Emma Reeves aids us with programming and identifies who she thinks is the best placed horse each weekend. Les Vampires, Friday 28th March, Muswellbrook, Race 7:I have very consistent threads each week and this is another one – big prizemoney country cups. The Muswellbrook Cup is no ordinary country cup though as it is always extremely strong. This is largely due to the golden $3mil. Big Dance ticket that the winner receives. We have a last start Saturday city winner with a city rating of 85 and he’s carrying 54kg, so that gives you an indication of the strength here. You can only take true weight on a Saturday in town so unfortunately, I couldn’t take his which would have been 53kg. That means he is carrying a kilo penalty, so he isn’t perfectly ‘playing by the rules’ but there are a number of other things that tick the boxes.We’ve always felt that he would get over ground but for different reasons, we haven’t been able to pull it off just yet. He seems to have returned particularly well though, and after his last win Adrian asked me if there was anything for him over slightly further. The obvious race is the benchmark 88 over 1400 metres at Rosehill on Saturday but it didn’t address the distance request so when I saw Muswellbrook, everything seemed to line up. He exceeds the average rating it takes to win this race and if he keeps improving, and our distance theory is correct, the Big Dance might just be a golden opportunity for him to win some serious prizemoney.    

WEDNESDAY 2nd APRIL – WARWICK FARM Rail Position: TrueVERY SEWREEL (Race 8, 5.50pm, 1400m, B Nock (3kg), 62kg) Very Sewreel is doing everything right ahead of her first-up run. She put up a much-improved showing in her third trial, and the blinkers certainly had the desired effect and switched her on so she retains these for raceday. Braith’s a talented apprentice who’s riding plenty of winners at present, so his 3kg claim is extremely valuable and brings her down to 59kg which is going to be of huge benefit first-up. 1400 metres is well short of her optimum trip so she’ll improve as she stretches out over further, but she’s fit and importantly she broke her maiden on a Soft 7 so we think she’ll get through the wet track. She’s a Saturday-grade winner who’s also Stakes race placed so she looks well-placed to run a big race upon her return, and we expect her to be in it for a long way.HEAT MISSILE (Race 8, 5.50pm, 1400m, T Clark, 56.5kg) Heat Missile has come through her first-up win at Kembla in wonderful order. She did a few things wrong on that occasion, but as Molly said she got the job done on raw ability alone so she’s got a tremendous amount of upside which is very exciting. That outing has done her the world of good and she’s a lot more switched-on heading into this contest, so this is a positive as she’s stepping up in grade to race in town so there’s a lot less margin for error at this level. The step up to 1400 metres is going to suit her, and whilst barrier 16 isn’t ideal she will hopefully come in a few after scratchings and Tim will roll forward from there to get across into a more favourable inside position. This race has a lot more depth to it than the one she contested last time so she needs to improve, but we think she has and we expect her to take the challenge in her stride and be right there at the finish. WEDNESDAY 2nd APRIL – BALLARATRail Position: +6M EntireNOTABADBUY (Race 5, 3.40pm, 1600m, J Stanley (1.5kg), 61kg) Notabadbuy is thriving ahead of his first-up run. He’s taken great benefit from his two jumpouts, and he’s beating his chest at home so he couldn’t be in a better headspace. Four of his five wins since arriving from New Zealand have been first-up, so he has a superb record when fresh which adds a lot of confidence here. He resumed with a win over a mile last preparation so we aren’t concerned about starting him off over this trip, and Jett’s a talented apprentice who take a valuable 1.5kg off his back. In doing so it brings him down to a rating of 69 which is slightly below his last winning mark, so we think he’s very well placed. He’s drawn to do no work from barrier 2 so he should be able to roll forward from there to control the race from the front, and we expect him to be difficult to run down.CORDINA (Race 6, 4.15pm, 1200m, B Shinn, 59kg) Cordina has come through her debut win in excellent shape. She has her quirks so we wanted to give her an easy kill on debut so that she had some margin for error, but she was very well behaved before and during the race and she couldn’t have been more impressive. She’s trained on nicely since that outing and giving her nearly three weeks between runs has been ideal. She’s taking on some older mares here which is never easy, but this race is an attractive steppingstone for her on her first foray outside of maiden grade. It’s restricted to her own sex which is a plus, and whilst it’s not easy to beat older mares it’s easier than taking on boys. She’ll have to do a bit of work to go forward from barrier 10 and secure the lead, but she has good early speed and we envisage her being able to roll to the front to make her own luck from there. Blake knows her well and it’s certainly a huge advantage having him aboard again, so with even luck in running we are confident she has the necessary upside to be right there at the finish.