Gai's Tip Sheet
FRIDAY 6th MARCH - NEWCASTLERail Position: TrueKNOWING LOOK, Race 1, 1200m, 1.15pm, T Clark, 56.5kgKnowing Look is pleasing us ahead of her return. We expected a bit more from her on debut as a two year old, but she just wasn’t quite ready to do herself justice. However, the race has produced five subsequent winners which is a positive sign and she’s had plenty of time to mature and strengthen up since then, so she’s a different filly now. She’s had two trials this time in to get her spot on for this return, and 1200 metres is a lovely starting point for her. We’ve put blinkers on to sharpen her up and ensure she’s entirely focused on the task at hand, and Tim will be positive from barrier 1 to try and make the most of being on the rail and make his own luck from the front. This is a realistic starting point for her and we expect her to give this a good shake to get her preparation off to an encouraging start. LILAC GIRL, Race 3, 1400m, 2.25pm, T Clark, 55kgLilac Girl is pleasing us ahead of her return. She had three runs in Victoria last preparation, but she just wasn’t quite ready to do herself justice. However, these race experiences have done her the world of good and there have been multiple subsequent winners since which is a positive sign. We’ve been patient with her so she’s had plenty of time to mature and strengthen up since then, and she’s a more robust filly now. She’s had two trials this time in to get her spot on for this return, and 1400 metres is a suitable starting point for her as she’d be outpaced over anything shorter. Tim will be positive from barrier 3 to try and land in a prominent position where she can travel comfortably and enjoy all the favours in the run. This is a realistic starting point for her, and whilst she will continue to improve as she stretches out in trip we still hope to see her to give this a good shake to get her preparation off to an encouraging start.SATURDAY 7th MARCH - RANDWICKRail Position: +5m 1000m-W/Post; +3m RemainderALALCANCE, Race 2, 2000m, 1.05pm, N Rawiller, 57kgAlalcance is doing everything right ahead of her return. She’s finished down the field in her two trials but this is normal for her, as she can’t get hot over those short distances. However, they’ve served their purpose in getting her fit and she’s going to relish starting off over 2000 metres. She won this race when first-up last preparation so we know she goes well fresh, but she had 53kg on her back on that occasion so it’ll obviously be much tougher here with 4kg more on her back. However, she’s certainly improved since then so we think she’s capable of defying this. Nash will let her roll forward from barrier 8 to make her own luck on or close to the speed, and we expect her to give a strong kick and take plenty of catching.AGRARIAN GIRL, Race 3, 1200m, 1.40pm, T Clark, 56.5kgAgrarian Girl is delighting us ahead of this run. She couldn’t have been more impressive when winning on debut at this track a month ago. She did it the tough way from the front, and she showed a faultless attitude when challenged and pinned her ears back resolutely to fend off Spicy Miss. That filly has since gone on to win the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes at this track last weekend, so the form’s had a tremendous boost which adds further confidence. She’s got the gate speed to roll forward from barrier 7 and get across into a more favourable inside position, and from there Tim should be able to rate her nicely in front. She’s won a trial on a Heavy track so if the rain materialises we are confident she will handle it, and if she takes the improvement we’ve seen at home to the races she’s the one they must all beat. THE PLAYWRIGHT, Race 5, 1100m, 2.50pm, R Bayliss, 56.5kgThe Playwright is delighting us ahead of her reappearance. Her two trials have been excellent, and she stretched out extremely gamely when winning her most recent one so these have put her spot on for her first-up run. Regan knows her well, and he’ll be positive from barrier 9 to try and utilise her early dash and get across into an inside position where she can roll along at the head of affairs. She’s got winning form with sting out of the ground, so any further rain wouldn’t concern her and if she can give a strong kick at the top of the straight we hope she will take plenty of catching. HEAT MISSILE, Race 6, 1600m, 3.25pm, T Clark, 53kgHeat Missile ran a very honest race when upped in grade in the Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes last time. This is a slightly easier grade, and this combined with the step up to the mile promises to be a lot more suitable for her. From barrier 3 Tim should be able to land in a forward position, and the steadier tempo of this longer race will enable her to travel much more comfortably in the run. She’s got another light weight with just 53kg on her back, and whilst this is far from easy it ticks a lot more boxes for her so we hope she can give a strong kick and take a bit of catching.SUNDAY 8th MARCH - CANBERRARail Position: +3M EntireWATSON, Race 5, 1400m, 3.00pm, T Clark, 56kgWatson is thriving ahead of this run. He’s gone from strength to strength this preparation, and he lost nothing in defeat when finishing fourth behind subsequent Group 1 winner Tempted last time. That was a significant rise in grade, and whilst this race isn’t easy it’s a winnable Stakes race and is extremely suitable for him at this stage of his preparation. He’s stretching out to 1400 metres for the first time which we expect him to relish, and he’s drawn well in barrier 3 so Tim should be able to adopt the front running tactics that were so successful at Canterbury two back. He’s the joint second highest rated horse in the field so he doesn’t have to improve much further to be winning, and we expect him to be very difficult to reel in.MONDAY 9th MARCH - MORPHETTVILLERail Position: TrueNEWFOUNDLAND, Race 7, 3200m, 4.15pm, T Clark, 54kgNewfoundland is in great order ahead of this run. He didn’t get the run of the race at Flemington last time, so we’re best off wiping that from our memories. He’s reunited here with Tim Clark who gets on with him extremely well and knows how to ride him, so this adds huge confidence. He was second in this race last year so we know he is more than capable of winning this, and he’s got just 1kg more on his back here so he looks well treated. We've applied the blinkers to try to eke out further improvement and he is loving his trip away from home. He's full of the joys of spring each morning, so given he ticks plenty of boxes we think he will be extremely hard to beat.
