Gai's Tip Sheet
SATURDAY 16TH NOVEMBER – NEWCASTLERail Position: RAIL - Out 6m Entire CircuitGANBARE (Race 6, 3.30pm, 1850m, T Clark, 58kg)The shape of the race didn’t suit Ganbare first-up where the wide barrier in a big field over a distance short of his best made it difficult for him to get into the contest. However, we were encouraged with how he finished off through the line and he’s come through the race in pleasing shape. His trial in between starts has kept his fitness up to the mark, and we can't fault his recent trackwork so we now just need him to reproduce what he is showing us in the mornings on the racetrack. We know the rise in distance to 1850 metres will suit him and bring about plenty of improvement second-up, so whilst barrier 10 isn’t ideal Tim will be positive from here to get him rolling forward into a position where he can travel comfortably on or just behind the speed. We expect to see a much-improved display with the benefit of race fitness under his belt and over a more suitable distance, so if he puts his best foot forward he's more than capable of making his presence known.TOWNSEND (Race 6, 3.30pm, 1850m, R King, 58.5kg)Townsend ran an excellent race first-up. He was only beaten by a talented and race fit rival, so he lost nothing in defeat after returning from a long absence. He had several consistent and progressive horses in behind him which is always a positive sign, and he has taken plenty of confidence from his tenacious display. We can’t fault his subsequent trackwork and he strips fitter and tighter in condition second-up here. Horses can sometimes race a little flat second-up after a long break, but we're hoping that giving him three weeks between runs has given him the additional time required to get over his exertions. We expect him to relish the rise in distance to 1850 metres on the expansive track at Newcastle, and Rachel will be positive from barrier 3 to try and roll forward and dictate the tempo of the race as she did last time. He’s lightly raced and he's open to plenty of improvement, so if he puts his best foot forward we expect him to be hard to beat.
THE THREE HUNDERED (Race 7, 4.05pm, 1600m, T Clark, 56.5kg)The Three Hundred is thriving at present and he’s matured wonderfully this preparation. He has been in tremendous form winning his last two starts, including when absorbing plenty of pressure before battling on gamely in the closing stages in his most recent outing at Warwick Farm to score in a competitive race. He's building a nice winning record and he’s full of confidence at present, so whilst this is another step up in grade he deserves to take his chance in a race of this calibre. After three runs at 1400 metres we think he will relish the step up in trip to the mile fourth-up, and Tim knows him well now so he will be positive from barrier 9 to try and take luck out of the equation by controlling the race from the front. As you would expect this is a competitive race, but he’s a progressive gelding who tries exceptionally hard and we think it will take a good one to run him down.
BALANCE PLAY (Race 9, 5.20pm, 2300m, R King, 53kg)Balance Play was a little too keen in the early stages in his latest start at Kensington. As a result, he struggled to quicken in the straight which left him vulnerable to speedier types over the concluding stages. He’s come through that race in good order though, and we feel he's now just looking for further. As such, he'll relish stretching out to 2300 metres as he's won over 2200 metres in the U.K., and he also has wet track form over there so he won't mind the track being rated a Soft 6. We've tinkered with his gear by removing the blinkers and adding a tongue tie to aid his breathing, and this could be the key to him. He's up in grade here and taking on higher rated horses as a result, but with his rating there are limited options over the right distance so we're prepared to roll the dice. He's got a lovely light weight of 53kg and Rachel gets on well with our horses, so she should be able to get him to relax and bowl along in a comfortable tempo towards the head of the field. It's a competitive race, but if he enjoys an economical run and does everything right in running we're confident he's capable of giving it a good shake.SATURDAY 16TH NOVEMBER – CAULFIELDRail Position: RAIL - Out 6m Entire CircuitNOTABADBUY (Race 1, 12.20pm, 1700m, E Brown, 60kg)
Notabadbuy gave us all a huge thrill when winning so determinedly first-up at Bendigo. He got into a lovely rhythm in the run and when he was asked to go and win his race at the top of the straight, his fantastic attitude came to the fore and he simply wouldn’t be denied a much deserved return to the Winner’s Circle. He’s come through that run in wonderful order and he is thriving at present, so he's taken plenty of confidence from his victory. He'll enjoy stretching out to 1700 metres and ideally we would've liked to get him out over a bit further second-up but the option isn't available to us in the right grade. As such, Ethan will be positive from barrier 3 and try to repeat the front running tactics he employed so successfully in his last start to make it a genuine stamina test. He’s got a big weight to carry with 60kg on his back and he's also rising in grade to a Saturday in town, so it’s not going to be easy. However, he carried the same weight to victory last time so he's capable of defying it and he's in great shape ahead of this contest so we expect him to be hard to run down once again.KAIZAD (Race 3, 1.25pm, 1400m, J McNeil, 57.5kg)We were disappointed with Kaizad’s finishing effort first-up. However, it was a high pressure 1200 metre race and he never had a moment to find a comfortable rhythm in the run and this just left him vulnerable late. He's a tough gelding though who's come through that outing in good shape, and his gallop on Tuesday morning was excellent. He’s open to plenty of improvement second-up stretching out in trip to 1400 metres, and the tempo of the race over this trip should enable him to travel much more comfortably in running. He’s got good gate speed and Jye will be positive from barrier 5 to get him rolling forward and hopefully secure the lead so that he can get into a rhythm that enables him to dictate the race to the others. We expect to see a much-improved display with the benefit of race fitness under his belt, and if he puts his best foot forward we’re confident he will be competitive for a long way.CATOGGIO (Race 4, 2pm, 1400m, J McNeil, 57kg)We were all delighted to see Catoggio gain a Stakes race victory in his latest start during the Flemington Carnival. We knew that he was capable of improving, but it was tremendous to see him win as decisively as he did at that level. He’s taken plenty of confidence from it, and his work on Tuesday morning was fantastic so Adrian and I couldn't be happier with him ahead of this outing. Jye will be positive from his favourable draw in barrier 1 to try and secure the lead, as with only seven runners there's more chance of him being able to control this race. However, he showed last time that he doesn't need to lead to win so if another runner is hellbent on leading, we can happily take a trail. If you take Coleman out of this, they're all very evenly matched on ratings so it's a small but very competitive field. However, he's certainly on an upwards trajectory so we are hopeful that he can keep rising to the occasion and be fighting out the finish.DOMINETTA (Race 7, 3.45pm, 1600m, C Williams, 56kg)Dominetta ran another excellent race in her latest outing at Flemington. She battled on bravely to the line despite not getting the smoothest of runs in transit, and the way she has finished off her last two starts over 1400 metres suggests she's going to relish stretching out to the mile for the first time. She's also learning and becoming more seasoned with each race, so we think she's got a tremendous amount of upside ahead of this fourth-up run. Caulfield is a quirky track so Adrian and I felt it was of the utmost importance that she galloped there on Tuesday morning to have some experience prior to raceday. As her jockey Craig Williams said, she was having a good look around but she ultimately knuckled down well in the run to the line and this gallop will stand her in wonderful stead come raceday. Craig will be positive from barrier 9 to get her rolling forward so that she can come across and slot into a prominent position on or just behind the speed. She's shown previously that she relaxes well in her races, so she should be able to enjoy an economical run in transit which will leave her with plenty to give at the business end of the race. As previously mentioned, we feel the step up to the mile is going to be the key to her so whilst this Group 1 contest is her toughest task to date, we're confident she has the necessary upside to be right there at the finish.
TOO DARN LIZZIE (Race 7, 3.45pm, 1600m, J McNeil, 56kg)Too Darn Lizzie is a hardy filly and she has bounced through her latest outing in great shape. She’s holding her condition very well at this stage in her preparation, and her gallop on Tuesday morning was excellent so she is right where we want her to be at this stage in the campaign. After three runs at 1400 metres we are confident she’s going to relish stretching out to the mile here, and Jye will be positive from the gates to try to roll forward from barrier 7 and get across to the rail where she can then hopefully control the race to suit herself. She’s run two terrific races at this venue so far this preparation, including her most recent victory two runs back. Course form counts for a lot at Caulfield because it's a tricky track that doesn't suit every horse, so we are hopeful that bringing her back here will prove to be a key factor in helping her put her best foot forward. She was carrying a penalty and conceding weight all around in her latest start at Flemington, so whilst this is a rise in grade to a Group 1 she meets her rivals at level weights and she is the top rated horse in the race, so she sets the standard in that respect. This is an extremely competitive race and there are plenty of unexposed fillies who are entitled to improve enormously, but she's been racing very well all preparation and we expect her to put up another bold showing and be fighting out the finish.
SATURDAY 16TH NOVEMBER – KEMBLA GRANGERail Position: RAIL - +9m 1100m-W/Post, +5m Remainder
(Race 6, 4.30pm, 1200m, J Van Overmeire, 57.5kg)Fragrant Cloud never got a moment's peace and couldn't settle into a comfortable rhythm in her latest start at Hawkesbury. That early pressure just left her vulnerable late in the run, so understandably she gave way over the concluding stages. She’s come through that outing in good shape though, and her subsequent trackwork has been very pleasing so we can’t fault her ahead of this outing. She’s a great eater so she looks excellent, and her coat is really starting to blossom at this stage in the preparation so she’s firing on all cylinders ahead of this third-up run. Jean will be positive from barrier 6 to try to take luck out of the equation and hopefully get control of the race to set a tempo to suit himself. She’s open to further improvement third-up over this trip, and we've put a tongue tie on to assist her breathing which can only be of benefit to her. If she can get into a good rhythm up front then we expect her to give a strong kick and be challenging at the finish.
