Gai's Tip Sheet
WEDNESDAY 30th SEPTEMBER - BALLARATRail Position: +4M Entire YAUSON - Race 5, 3.45pm, 1600m, J Childs, 60kgYauson was fantastic when winning by an incredibly dominant 4.25 lengths at Seymour last time. He couldn’t have been more impressive and this is a lovely, gradual steppingstone from a Benchmark 62 Handicap so whilst he sticks to the mile and will appreciate further in time, this is an ideal race for him as we continue to take him through his grades. Jordan knows him inside out and will let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 12 as he tends to get back and find cover in his races. Hopefully the leaders set a genuine tempo as he’ll be well suited by an end-to-end gallop, and he should be very hard to beat once more.HOME INVASION - Race 6, 4.20pm, 1200m, J Childs, 57kgHome Invasion ran encouragingly when resuming at Sandown. It was a very competitive race but she wasn’t disgraced, and she only conceded ground inside the final furlong. She’s taken great benefit from that so she strips fitter here, and she’s had an uninterrupted fortnight which is certainly to her advantage. Barrier 14 is a little tricky so Jordan will have to work his magic, but she’s got natural early toe so she should be able to put herself into a nice position. We think she’ll be well suited stretching out to 1200 metres so this has the capacity to bring about further improvement too, so we’re confident she’ll take a step forward and she should be capable of featuring in the finishWEDNESDAY 30th SEPTEMBER - ROSEHILLRail Position: +5M Entire LOW KEY - Race 1, 1.50pm, 1400m, T Clark, 55kgLow Key was unlucky not to win when resuming at Kensington. She found only the race fit colt Threads too strong for her in the shadows of the post but she lost nothing in defeat, and the first three pulled 4 lengths clear of the rest of the field so they’re certainly above average. She’s taken plenty of improvement from the run so she strips fitter here, and whilst she’s untested beyond 1150 metres she relaxes well in her races and we don’t envisage it being an issue. Tim learned a lot about her last time so he’ll let her roll forward from barrier 6 to race on the speed, and we expect her to take a step forward here so she should hopefully be hard to beat.VICTORIOUS RULER - Race 1, 1.50pm, 1400m, R King, 55kgVictorious Ruler is pleasing us ahead of her first-up run. She’s had three trials so she’s as fit as we can get her, and she was an encouraging third in her most recent hit out at Randwick. She’s kicking off in a competitive race so we’re under no illusions that it’s a tough ask, but she twice placed in town in her first racing preparation so we know she’s up to this grade which gives us the confidence to resume here. Rachel will let her work forward from barrier 10 and slot in to find a spot where she can travel comfortably and conserve energy mid-race. Rosehill is a wonderfully expansive track which will help her and this is a lovely race for her against her own age group, so whilst there no doubt be improvement to come as she gets deeper into her preparation she’s ready to run a big race for you all.SHANTI - Race 2, 2.25pm, 1200m, C Schofield, 55kgShanti got her career off to a fantastic start when finishing a very close third at Hawkesbury almost three weeks ago. She’s taken plenty of natural improvement from that so she’s strips fitter here, and she’s bred to relish getting out to 1200 metres so that should bring about improvement. She’s drawn barrier in 8 so Chad should be able to roll forward from there and establish her in a prominent position, and from there she should be able to travel comfortably and conserve energy mid-race. She’s up in grade here so it’s going to be tougher but she’s an extremely likeable filly who is open to a huge amount of upside in only her second career start, and we expect her to be in it for a long way.SAVVY SPY - Race 5, 4.10pm, 1800m, R Bayliss, 54.5kgSavvy Spy endured a torrid run at Canterbury last time so you can put a line through that effort. He’s better judged on his encouraging effort when resuming at Kembla, and his recent work at home has been excellent so we can’t fault him in that regard. He’s drawn a slightly softer barrier here in 7 but it’s another start that has a short run to the first turn, so hopefully Regan can slot in and conserve energy mid-race. The slightly steadier tempo of this longer race should enable him to travel comfortably in the run, and hopefully he can give a good kick on straightening and put himself in the finish.OUTTA LINE - Race 6, 4.45pm, 1300m, R King, 57.5kgOutta Line is pleasing us ahead of her return. For whatever reason she just didn’t come up last preparation, so we tipped her out after one run and gave her some time which has done her good because she’s furnished into a mature mare. She’s had two trials this time in and she was a promising second in her latest one, so she looks to be going well and we’re as confident as we can be that she’s ready to go again. 1300 metres is on the short side for her so we know she’ll improve for the run and as she gets out in trip, but this race is restricted to her own sex which is always our preference where possible so it’s a suitable starting point. She’s drawn a tricky barrier in 13 and it’s unlikely she’ll have the speed to roll forward and lead, so Rachel will have to let her land where she’s comfortable and try and slot in to enjoy as smooth a run in transit as possible. She’s not primed to be winning first-up and this is very much a building block to second-up and beyond, but we hope to see her race with enthusiasm and hit the line strongly to get her campaign off to an encouraging start.DUKE OF ARRAKIS - Race 7, 5.20pm, 1200m, R Bayliss, 57.5kgWe couldn’t be prouder to see Duke Of Arrakis back at the races given the seriousness of the injury he sustained back in March. It’s a testament to him and his wonderful demeanour that he was able to come back from that, and he hasn’t put a foot wrong this preparation. He took good improvement from his first trial to win his most recent one, and he’s continued to progress wonderfully since then. He hasn’t raced for just shy of a year so whatever he achieves here he will undoubtedly improve upon, but he’s been gelded in that time which can bring about huge improvement. We has won and placed in town previously too so we know he’s got city-grade ability, and he’s not out of place here. 1200 metres is a good starting point for him, and whilst barrier 11 is a little tricky Regan will ride the race as he finds it and let him land where he’s comfortable. He’s not primed to be winning first-up and this is very much a building block to second-up and beyond, but we hope to see him race with enthusiasm and hit the line strongly to get his campaign off to an encouraging start.METALLIC CAT - Race 7, 5.20pm, 1200m, A Hyeronimus, 59kgMetallic Cat is delighting us ahead of her return. Her two trials have given her the right fitness grounding for 1200 metres first-up, and her two wins were over 1300 metres so it’s a lovely starting point for her. She was most progressive last preparation, breaking her maiden extremely impressively and then following that up with another win in this same grade of race at Warwick Farm which is never easy to do on your first run outside of maiden grade. Three horses have come out of that race and won since so the form’s holding up too, and she’s certainly an exciting mare with plenty more to come. She's drawn barrier 13 but she’s got good early speed, so Adam will be positive from there to try and get across into a more favourable position where she can then travel comfortably in the run. She’s taking on the boys here and has 59kg to contend with but she’s a big, strong mare, and she gets her 2kg sex allowance so given she rates as favourite it looks like a lovely race to kick her off in and we expect her to be fighting out the finish with improvement to come as she gets deeper into her preparation.
