Gai's Tip Sheet
SATURDAY 7th MARCH - RANDWICKRail Position: +5m 1000m-W/Post; +3m RemainderALALCANCE, Race 2, 2000m, 1.05pm, N Rawiller, 57kgAlalcance is doing everything right ahead of her return. She’s finished down the field in her two trials but this is normal for her, as she can’t get hot over those short distances. However, they’ve served their purpose in getting her fit and she’s going to relish starting off over 2000 metres. She won this race when first-up last preparation so we know she goes well fresh, but she had 53kg on her back on that occasion so it’ll obviously be much tougher here with 4kg more on her back. However, she’s certainly improved since then so we think she’s capable of defying this. Nash will let her roll forward from barrier 8 to make her own luck on or close to the speed, and we expect her to give a strong kick and take plenty of catching.CAMPALDINO, Race 2, 2000m, 1.05pm, T Clark, 55kgCampaldino resumed with a very creditable effort to finish just 2.16 lengths from the winner at Rosehill a fortnight ago. It was his first run for eight months so we knew whatever he did there he’d improve upon, and his subsequent work has been excellent so we couldn’t be happier with how he’s training ahead of this outing. This step up to 2000 metres is a positive and the forecast rain could result in a soft track which we know he’s extremely effective on. Tim will let him land where he’s comfortable from barrier 2 but we envisage him settling just off the speed and bowling along at an even tempo in running. This race is a lovely steppingstone for him second-up, and we expect him to build upon his first-up effort and make his presence felt in the run to the line.AGRARIAN GIRL, Race 3, 1200m, 1.40pm, T Clark, 56.5kgAgrarian Girl is delighting us ahead of this run. She couldn’t have been more impressive when winning on debut at this track a month ago. She did it the tough way from the front, and she showed a faultless attitude when challenged and pinned her ears back resolutely to fend off Spicy Miss. That filly has since gone on to win the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes at this track last weekend, so the form’s had a tremendous boost which adds further confidence. She’s got the gate speed to roll forward from barrier 7 and get across into a more favourable inside position, and from there Tim should be able to rate her nicely in front. She’s won a trial on a Heavy track so if the rain materialises we are confident she will handle it, and if she takes the improvement we’ve seen at home to the races she’s the one they must all beat. MISS CHANEL, Race 3, 1200m, 1.40pm, R Bayliss, 56.5kgMiss Chanel is in great shape ahead of this outing. She was a beaten favourite at this track last time, but she was caught wide in the run and this just compromised her finishing effort. She’s going to relish stretching out to 1200 metres here, and it’s going to enable her to travel that bit more comfortably in the middle stages of the contest. We’ve been able to give her three weeks between runs here which has also been of benefit, and she’s showing us all the right signs at home of a filly who’s ready to go once again. She’s drawn a much better barrier here in 4, so Regan will be able to land in a forward position without having to use her up too much. We’ve also put blinkers on for the first time, not because she’s ungenuine but just to help her focus and travel more kindly in the run. This is a competitive race but her Group 3 placing two back shows she more than deserves her place in the field, and we hope she can bounce back and make her presence known at the finish. THE PLAYWRIGHT, Race 5, 1100m, 2.50pm, R Bayliss, 56.5kgThe Playwright is delighting us ahead of her reappearance. Her two trials have been excellent, and she stretched out extremely gamely when winning her most recent one so these have put her spot on for her first-up run. Regan knows her well, and he’ll be positive from barrier 9 to try and utilise her early dash and get across into an inside position where she can roll along at the head of affairs. She’s got winning form with sting out of the ground, so any further rain wouldn’t concern her and if she can give a strong kick at the top of the straight we hope she will take plenty of catching. HEAT MISSILE, Race 6, 1600m, 3.25pm, T Clark, 53kgHeat Missile ran a very honest race when upped in grade in the Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes last time. This is a slightly easier grade, and this combined with the step up to the mile promises to be a lot more suitable for her. From barrier 3 Tim should be able to land in a forward position, and the steadier tempo of this longer race will enable her to travel much more comfortably in the run. She’s got another light weight with just 53kg on her back, and whilst this is far from easy it ticks a lot more boxes for her so we hope she can give a strong kick and take a bit of catching.SATURDAY 7th MARCH - HAWKESBURYRail Position: TrueCANADIAN FLING, Race 4, 1500m, 3.10pm, Z Wadick (1.5kg), 55.5kgCanadian Fling was a bit disappointing at Goulburn last week. However, Zac said she didn’t enjoy the deteriorating track so we’re prepared to be forgiving of her effort. Hawkesbury is rated a Soft 6 at the time of writing and there is the potential for rain, but we hope it won't get too wet. This is a rise in grade from country level but she’s deep into her preparation and she’s a fit mare, so she’ll make her own luck from barrier 2 and we’d be very satisfied if she can give this a good shake.SUNDAY 8th MARCH - CANBERRARail Position: +3M EntireWATSON, Race 5, 1400m, 3.00pm, T Clark, 56kgWatson is thriving ahead of this run. He’s gone from strength to strength this preparation, and he lost nothing in defeat when finishing fourth behind subsequent Group 1 winner Tempted last time. That was a significant rise in grade, and whilst this race isn’t easy it’s a winnable Stakes race and is extremely suitable for him at this stage of his preparation. He’s stretching out to 1400 metres for the first time which we expect him to relish, and he’s drawn well in barrier 3 so Tim should be able to adopt the front running tactics that were so successful at Canterbury two back. He’s the joint second highest rated horse in the field so he doesn’t have to improve much further to be winning, and we expect him to be very difficult to reel in.EVICTION NOTICE, Race 7, 1200m, 4.21pm, A Hyeronimus, 56kgEviction Notice was no match for Stretan Ruler in the Silver Slipper last time, however he did reverse the form with Hidrix and Confederation who finished ahead of him in the Canonbury Stakes in January. He’s improving each time he steps out, and we expect him to appreciate stretching out to 1200 metres for the first time here. Adam knows him well and he’ll be positive from barrier 14 to try and land in a prominent position, and if he keeps improving on what he’s already achieved this time in he’s more than capable of winning this.MONDAY 9th MARCH - MORPHETTVILLERail Position: TrueNEWFOUNDLAND, Race 7, 3200m, 4.15pm, T Clark, 54kgNewfoundland is in great order ahead of this run. He didn’t get the run of the race at Flemington last time, so we’re best off wiping that from our memories. He’s reunited here with Tim Clark who gets on with him extremely well and knows how to ride him, so this adds huge confidence. He was second in this race last year so we know he is more than capable of winning this, and he’s got just 1kg more on his back here so he looks well treated. We've applied the blinkers to try to eke out further improvement and he is loving his trip away from home. He's full of the joys of spring each morning, so given he ticks plenty of boxes we think he will be extremely hard to beat.
