Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Racing

Stallions Are Important

 

The late Sebring
 

A key aspect of building our 'mouse trap' to catch the athletes with the highest potential to fill our 2021 partnerships, is the analysis of the stallions represented in the catalogue
 
Stallions Are Important:
 
1) There is a reason why, despite covering different mares each year, the same stallions rise to the top of the sire tables each season. Sires have a profound impact on athletic ability!
 
2) Stallions carry a strong weight when it comes to the price you have to pay for a yearling. Perhaps edging out physical appearance as the most influential factor when it comes to the value of a thoroughbred at this age. 
 
3) Stallion preferences in the marketplace at any given time are strongly impacted by recency bias and fashion.
 
Based on the above you can understand why evaluating sires objectively is a huge assist when it comes to using our budget most effectively. Accurate stallion ratings can help you identify stallions who are on the rise, over-hyped or underappreciated in the market.
 
What Metrics To Use:
 
Stakes winners to runners is the most common method of measuring stallion class. It is a good metric to look at but it also has its limitations. Young sires on the rise (4yos and under) are often undervalued on this scale, while older stallions can be overvalued if the weight of their successful progeny came in their earliest crops.
 
Instead, we use time ratings like the ones professional punters use to measure talent. This allows us to evaluate a sire's progeny before they may have had the opportunity to contest Metropolitan races, or even Stakes races. Here are some of the key constraints we use:
 
1. We only use progeny results for each sire that is recent to keep the data as relevant as possible. You still want enough sample size to ensure the data is meaningful, so we use results from the past four seasons.
 
2. To measure quality we look at rating ranges as they correlate to race class. We have found Sydney & Melbourne Metropolitan Saturday Class as a ratio to overall runners as a good measure of any stallion in the market. This gives us a good sample size and basically highlights a stallion's ability to sire runners in the top 15% of their generation.
 
3. As our goal is to win the 50 or more $1m+ races programmed each season in Australia, a stallion's ability to sire elite class horses is also critical. Group 1 winners as a ratio to runners is another metric we look at although sample sizes become more difficult here.
 
4. Distance profiles of each stallion are also important when pin-pointing horses for each clearly segmented partnership. These are easily attainable and readily available on Arion pedigrees.
 
What You Learn:
 
For the most part you learn that the Australian General Sires Premiership by overall progeny prize-money won in a season is a very good measure of a stallion's pre-potency. 
 
You uncover a few diamonds in the rough however. You take note of a few young stallions doing a better job than the market gives them credit for, and you find the odd older stallion who has fallen off their perch so to speak.
 
We can't give away all our secrets publicly (so we can save that advantage for you) but one stallion who is a good example of rating well for us is Swettenham Stud's, TORONADO. You would not find him very high on a table of Stakes winners to runners, but he has a good strike rate of producing racehorses who have run Saturday Metro time ratings. Interestingly, just of late some of these performers have started to convert their ratings into formal Black Type for their pedigree pages.   
 
Epigenetics:
 
The environment including Adrian & Gai's training style has a major impact on how an individual's genes are expressed. Therefore some breeds do better in the Tulloch Lodge system than others and we try to select for this. Thankfully with 427 Group 1 wins and counting, plenty of thoroughbreds have thrived under the training principles set out by TJ Smith.
 
Below is a TOP TEN table of the most successful stallions through Tulloch Lodge over the last decade by Stakes winners: 
 
High Chaparral - 11
Snitzel - 10
Fastnet Rock - 9
Northern Meteor - 8
Al Maher - 6
Redoute's Choice, More Than Ready, Sebring - 5
I Am Invincible, Not A Single Doubt, Choisir and Manhattan Rain - 3
 
You will see a few of these stallions were themselves products of Tulloch Lodge. Pierro will be on this list soon too. We note that we are now having success with the sons of these stallions tabled. High Chaparral via Dundeel and So You Think for example. More Than Ready and Sebring, plus Redoute's Choice via Snitzel and Not a Single Doubt. 
 
We hope this insight gives you a feel for how extensive our stallion analysis is, and how valuable this information is for us through the acquisition process. The only stallions we cannot evaluate are the stallions without runners - the first season stallions. We will touch on them in a later piece.
 

To view our 2021 partnerships please click here:  Click Here

 
When you are ready, please let us know where your interest lies for 2021 so that we can communicate with you more relevantly. We will have specific content & functions for each partnership during each sale & throughout the year.

If any of your family or friends would be interested in receiving these emails, please contact Claudia Miller - claudia@gaiwaterhouse.com.au 

Vancouver 

 

Pierro

 

 
 

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A key aspect of building our 'mouse trap' to catch the athletes with the highest potential to fill our 2021 partnerships, is the analysis of the stallions represented in the catalogue.  


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